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Chart patterns Options basics Indicators pack:
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MA and MACDMoving averagesUsing moving averages, as we know from math, allows us to reduce noice on the chart. There are few types of moving averages, the most important (for the technical analysis) are "simple" MA (SMA), where all points have equal weight and exponential MA (EMA), that are assigning higher weight to the latest points, therefore making the method more sensitive to the resent changes in a stock price. This approach is better for most applications, however being more sensitive it can produce more false signals. Some traders would suggest using the traditional MA instead (all points having equal weight) for the situations when signals should be more reliable. To calculate the EMA, use the following approach: Current_EMA = ((2/(1+Number_of_periods_for_EMA)) x (Current_Price - Previous_EMA)) + Previous_EMA Using moving averagesRegardles the implementation details, all MA techniques are based on analyzing the DISTANCE between the moving average and the original chart, or between two moving averages. Are they moving closer? Are they intersecting? Are they moving away?
On the picture above we have the stock price and the moving averages. Let's see what information we can extract from this chart. 1. The trend, the support and the resistance. As we know, the moving average is always behind the actual data. So if the stock price is increasing, the line for the price will be above the line for the moving average, as the price rises BEFORE the MA. Therefore as long as the price is going up, the MA will form the line below the price. You might notice, that (leaving aside the fact that this line is not so straight) it is a support line. Same logic applies to the price declining - the MA will form the resistance line above the price. What will happen if the trend changes? The price line will cross the MA! We have a "trend change" indicator! And unlike the line drawn by the ruler, this one can be coded as part of a computer algoritm. 2. We may also use the intersection of two lines (price and MA) as a signal. Indeed, the trend changes - it is time to trade. 3. The only problem with the approach above is the price volatility. What if the stock jumps up or down for no particular reason, and then returns? It will generate a false signal, wouldn't it? To fix this problem, we need to make our price line smoother, and we already know how to do it. We use Moving Averages, studying intersections of two (or more) MA's, rather then of MA and price. In a typical "minimum" case (that is probably the best for practical applications) we would have two moving averages, one for the short period and one for the long period. A simple rule applies: the intersection of these two lines is a trading signal. As you can see, the two moving averages are much less noisy then price line, but they are still moving fast sometimes, and in different directions, so the signals are not necessarily clear. This is one of the problems with the MA's - they work fine when the trend is present, and do not work when the stock price is moving sideways. The false signals generated by MA in that case are called "whipsaw". If we select longer intervals for the average, there will be less signals and each of them will represent a larger move of the stock price. The number of false signals will be less, too. MACDMACD stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. This technique is one of the most often used by the different simulator software as performing the technical analysis of stock trend using this method is easy and very straightforward. As I mentioned, the MACD works well both for a "long term", middle term and intraday trading systems. The macd calculation is usually based on exponential moving averages, meaning that earlier points have less weight than latest ones.
This approach takes one more step - let's subtract two MA's, so that we produce an oscillator-like indicator. "Like" means that yes, it is oscillating around zero, but no, it is not confined in the 0:1, or -1:1 corridor. It means that we can use it to generate signals, but not to find overbought and oversold conditions. There are few ways of using MACD. First we already know - signals are generated when the line crosses zero. Crossing from negative into the positive is considered a buy signal, while crossing from the positive to negative is considered a sell signal.
We can also use the divergence of the indicator. When the stock price is rising and MACD is falling (negative divergence), or vice versa, it can be considered an indication of "something going on" and can be used to predict changes in a trend. That's right, the lagging indicator that is supposed to follow the price, is predicting the stock behaviour. On the picture above, the stock price formed a double peak with the second peak higher than the first one. In the same time (plus the delay due to the use of MAs) the MACD formed two peaks, but the second peak was smaller, which created the divergence. Soon the price broke the support line. The main disadvantage of the MA and MACD indicators is the fact that they are FOLLOWING the price, rather than predicting it. Which is fine IF (and it is a big if) stock market is not changing rapidly. When choosing the intervals for the fast and slow MAs, we are usually testing them against existing historical data for the stock. Now, if the stock behaviour suddenly changes, the previous testing becomes useless! One of the solution to the MACD data being late is the MACD histogram, introduced by Thomas Aspray. The histogram is the difference between the MACD and 9 days EMA of MACD, therefore it is a derivative on the derivative. The centerline crossovers and divergences are easier to identify when data is represented this way. Usually, the longer and sharper the divergence is, the better. The most important and strong signals are those confirming an existing trend. ParametersThere are many trading systems that are using different periods for the fast and slow moving avarages. 26 and 9 days is one of the most frequently used combinations. Sometimes people would perform optimization, trying to find the numbers that are the best for a particular stock. You can speed up the optimization process by performing the testing using Trader software. Not only will it test different combinations of intervals, but also it can use some additional twists on the technique, like reversing the signals or using shorts. When to applyIn order to use buy and sell signals successfully, we need to apply them when (OK, almost when) the trend is changing. To do it, we need to have a trend to reverse. The MA-based indicators are not very useful in a situation when the price is moving sideways, or for trende that are not yet established. Indicators can and should be used together, and it is particularly useful to avoid using similar indicators (MA and MACD). The Chaikin Money Flow indicator is a good choice to use together with MA's. MA's (as many other tools of the technical analysis) can be used not only with the prices of stocks, but also with other indicators. ConfirmationIt is important to realize that the indicator (any) should not be used by itself. The false signals can be generated, and the only way to protect yourself is by keeping an eye on the "bigger picture", particularly, on the other tools, giving the opposite signals. ImplementationThe Indicators pack includes the implementation of the MA. Also, MAs are including as part of the Cortex's Built-in Scripting Language.
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